Sporting tournaments and changed birth rates 9 months later: a systematic review.

Introduction: Major sporting tournaments may be associated with increased birth rates 9 months afterwards, possibly due to celebratory sex. The influence of major sporting tournaments on birth patterns remains to be fully explored. Methods: Studies that examined the relationship between such events and altered birth metrics (number of births and/or birth sex ratio (male/total live births)) 9(±1) months later were sought in PubMed and Scopus and reported via standard guidelines. Database searches were conducted up to 7 November 2022. Results: Five events led to increased birth metrics 9(±1) months later and these included the Super Bowl, the 2009 UEFA Champions League, the 2010 FIFA World Cup, the 2016 UEFA Euros and the 2019 Rugby World Cup. Several la Liga soccer matches also had effects. With a few exceptions, major American football, Association football (soccer) and Rugby apex tournaments in Africa, North America, Asia and Europe were associated with increases in the number of babies born and/or in the birth sex ratio 9(±1) months following notable team wins and/or hosting the tournament. Furthermore, unexpected losses by teams from a premier soccer league were associated with a decline in births 9 months on. Conclusions: This systematic review establishes that major sporting tournaments have a notable impact on birth patterns, influencing both birth rates and sex ratios. Emotional intensification during these events likely triggers hormonal shifts, driving changes in sexual activity and subsequently shaping birth rates, often positively, about 9 months later. The context is crucial, especially when a region/country hosts a major single-sport tournament or participates for the first time, as population excitement is likely to be at its peak. These findings hold significance for healthcare planning and highlight the role of societal events in shaping demographic trends. PROSPERO registration: CRD42022382971.

COVID-19 induced birth sex ratio changes in England and Wales.

Background: The sex ratio at birth (male live births divided by total live births) may be a sentinel health indicator. Stressful events reduce this ratio 3-5 months later by increasing male fetal loss. This ratio can also change 9 months after major population events that are linked to an increase or decrease in the frequency of sexual intercourse at the population level, with the ratio either rising or falling respectively after the event. We postulated that the COVID-19 pandemic may have affected the ratio in England and Wales. Methods: Publicly available, monthly live birth data for England and Wales was obtained from the Office for National Statistics up to December 2020. Using time series analysis, the sex ratio at birth for 2020 (global COVID-19 onset) was predicted using data from 2012-2019. Observed and predicted values were compared. Results: From 2012-2020 there were 3,133,915 male and 2,974,115 female live births (ratio 0.5131). Three months after COVID-19 was declared pandemic (March 2020), there was a significant fall in the sex ratio at birth to 0.5100 in June 2020 which was below the 95% prediction interval of 0.5102-0.5179. Nine months after the pandemic declaration, (December 2020), there was a significant rise to 0.5171 (95% prediction interval 0.5085-0.5162). However, December 2020 had the lowest number of live births of any month from 2012-2020. Conclusions: Given that June 2020 falls within the crucial window when population stressors are known to affect the sex ratio at birth, these findings imply that the start of the COVID-19 pandemic caused population stress with notable effects on those who were already pregnant by causing a disproportionate loss of male fetuses. The finding of a higher sex ratio at birth in December 2020, i.e., 9 months after COVID-19 was declared a pandemic, could have resulted from the lockdown restrictions that initially spurred more sexual activity in a subset of the population in March 2020.

COVID-19 onset reduced the sex ratio at birth in South Africa.

Background: The sex ratio at birth (defined as male/(male+female) live births) is anticipated to approximate 0.510 with a slight male excess. This ratio has been observed to decrease transiently around 3-5 months following sudden unexpected stressful events. We hypothesised that stress engendered by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic may have caused such a decrease in South Africa 3-5 months after March 2020 since in this month, South Africa reported its first COVID-19 case, death and nationwide lockdown restrictions were instituted. Methods: We used publicly available, recorded monthly live birth data from Statistics South Africa. The most recent month for which data was available publicly was December 2020. We analysed live births for a 100-month period from September 2012 to December 2020, taking seasonality into account. Chi-squared tests were applied. Results: Over this 100-month period, there were 8,151,364 live births. The lowest recorded monthly sex ratio at birth of 0.499 was in June 2020, 3 months after March 2020. This June was the only month during this period where the sex ratio inverted i.e., fewer male live births occurred. The predicted June 2020 ratio was 0.504. The observed June 2020 decrease was statistically significant p = 0.045. Conclusions: The sex ratio at birth decreased and inverted in South Africa in June 2020, for the first time, during the most recent 100-month period. This decline occurred 3 months after the March 2020 onset of COVID-19 in South Africa. As June 2020 is within the critical window when population stressors are known to impact the sex ratio at birth, these findings suggest that the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic engendered population stress with notable effects on pregnancy and public health in South Africa. These findings have implications for future pandemic preparedness and social policy.

A very-hot food and beverage thermal exposure index and esophageal cancer risk in Malawi and Tanzania: findings from the ESCCAPE case-control studies.

BACKGROUND: Consumption of very-hot beverages/food is a probable carcinogen. In East Africa, we investigated esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) risk in relation to four thermal exposure metrics separately and in a combined score. METHODS: From the ESCCAPE case-control studies in Blantyre, Malawi (2017-20) and Kilimanjaro, Tanzania (2015-19), we used logistic regression models adjusted for country, age, sex, alcohol and tobacco, to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for self-reported thermal exposures whilst consuming tea, coffee and/or porridge. RESULTS: The study included 849 cases and 906 controls. All metrics were positively associated with ESCC: temperature of drink/food (OR 1.92 (95% CI: 1.50, 2.46) for 'very hot' vs 'hot'), waiting time before drinking/eating (1.76 (1.37, 2.26) for <2 vs 2-5 minutes), consumption speed (2.23 (1.78, 2.79) for 'normal' vs 'slow') and mouth burning (1.90 (1.19, 3.01) for ≥6 burns per month vs none). Amongst consumers, the composite score ranged from 1 to 12, and ESCC risk increased with higher scores, reaching an OR of 4.6 (2.1, 10.0) for scores of ≥9 vs 3. CONCLUSIONS: Thermal exposure metrics were strongly associated with ESCC risk. Avoidance of very-hot food/beverage consumption may contribute to the prevention of ESCC in East Africa.

The association between caesarean section delivery and later life obesity in 21-24 year olds in an Urban South African birth cohort.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is an important public health problem and rates have reached epidemic proportions in many countries. Studies have explored the association between infants delivered by caesarean section and their later life risk of obesity, in many countries outside Africa. As a result of the increasing caesarean section and obesity rates in South Africa, we investigated the association in this country. METHODS: This was a retrospective analysis of data that were collected from a prospective South African birth cohort (Birth to Twenty Plus), established in 1990. A total of 889 young adults aged 21-24 years were included in the analysis. Poisson regression models were fitted to assess the association between mode of delivery and early adulthood obesity. RESULTS: Of the 889 young adults, 106 (11.9%) were obese while 72 (8.1%) were delivered by caesarean section; of which 14 (19.4%) were obese. Caesarean section delivery was significantly associated with obesity in young adults after adjusting for potential confounders like young adults' sex and birth weight, mothers' parity, and education (incidence rate ratio 1.64, 95% CI 1.01-2.68, p = 0.045). CONCLUSION: The association of caesarean section with early adulthood obesity should be interpreted with caution because data on certain key confounding factors such as mothers' pre-pregnancy body mass index and gestational diabetes were not available. Further research from Africa, with larger sample sizes and databases with useful linking of maternal and infant data, should be conducted.

Caesarean section delivery and childhood obesity: evidence from the growing up in New Zealand cohort.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies have reported conflicting results in the association between Caesarean section (CS) birth and childhood obesity. Many of these studies had small sample sizes, were unable to distinguish between elective/planned and emergency CS, and did not adjust for the key confounder maternal pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI). We investigated the association between CS delivery, particularly elective/planned and childhood obesity, using the Growing Up in New Zealand prospective longitudinal cohort study. METHODS: Pregnant women planning to deliver their babies on the New Zealand upper North Island were invited to participate. Mode of delivery was categorised into spontaneous vaginal delivery (VD) (reference), assisted VD, planned CS and emergency CS. The main outcome was childhood obesity defined according to the International Obesity Taskforce criteria at age 24 and 54 months. Multinomial logistic regression and mixed-effects linear regression models were fitted with associations adjusted for several potential confounders. RESULTS: Of the 6599 infants, 1532 (23.2%) were delivered by CS. At age 24 months, 478 (9.3%) children were obese. There was a statistically significant association between planned CS adjusted relative risk ratio (aRRR=1.59; (95% CI 1.09 to 2.33)) and obesity but not for emergency CS (aRRR=1.27; (95% CI 0.89 to 1.82)). At age 54 months there was no association between planned CS (aRRR=0.89; (95% CI 0.54 to 1.45)) and obesity as well as for emergency CS (aRRR=1.19; (95% CI 0.80 to 1.77)). At all-time points those born by planned CS had a higher mean BMI (adjusted mean difference=0.16; (95% CI 0.00 to 0.31), p=0.046). CONCLUSIONS: Planned CS was an independent predictor of obesity in early childhood. This suggests that birth mode influences growth, at least in the short term. This association occurred during a critical phase of human development, the first 2 years of life, and if causal might result in long-term detrimental cardiometabolic changes.

Caesarean section delivery and childhood obesity in a British longitudinal cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Several studies reported an association between Caesarean section (CS) birth and childhood obesity. However, there are several limitations in the current literature. These include an inability to distinguish between planned and emergency CS, small study sample sizes and not adjusting for pre-pregnancy body-mass-index (BMI). We examined the association between CS delivery and childhood obesity using the United Kingdom Millennium Cohort Study (MCS). METHODS: Mother-infant pairs were recruited into the MCS. Use of sampling weights ensured the sample was representative of the population. The exposure was categorised as normal vaginal delivery (VD) [reference], assisted VD, planned CS and emergency CS. Childhood obesity prevalence, at age three, five, seven, eleven and fourteen years was calculated using the International Obesity Taskforce criteria. Mixed-effects linear regression models were fitted with associations adjusted for several potential confounders like maternal age, pre-pregnancy BMI, education and infant macrosomia. Linear regression models were fitted evaluating body fat percentage (BF%), at age seven and fourteen years. RESULTS: Of the 18,116 infants, 3872 (21.4%) were delivered by CS; 9.2% by planned CS. Obesity prevalence was 5.4%, 5.7%, 6.5%, 7.1% and 7.6% at age three, five, seven, eleven and fourteen years respectively. The mixed-effects linear regression model showed no association between planned (adjusted mean difference = 0.00; [95% confidence interval (CI) -0.10; 0.10], p-value = 0.97) or emergency CS (adjusted mean difference = 0.08; [95% CI -0.01; 0.17], p-value = 0.09) and child BMI. At age seven years, there was no association between planned CS and BF% (adjusted mean difference = 0.13; [95% CI -0.23; 0.49]); there was no association at age fourteen years. CONCLUSIONS: Infants born by planned CS did not have a significantly higher BMI or BF% compared to those born by normal VD. This may suggest that the association, described in the literature, could be due to the indications/reasons for CS birth or residual confounding.

Association between caesarean section delivery and obesity in childhood: a longitudinal cohort study in Ireland.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the association between caesarean section (CS) birth and body fat percentage (BF%), body mass index (BMI) and being overweight or obese in early childhood. DESIGN: Prospective longitudinal cohort study. SETTING: Babies After Screening for Pregnancy Endpoints: Evaluating the Longitudinal Impact on Neurological and Nutritional Endpoints cohort. PARTICIPANTS: Infants born to mothers recruited from the Screening for Pregnancy Endpoints study, Cork University Maternity Hospital between November 2007 and February 2011. OUTCOME MEASURE: Overweight or obese defined according to the International Obesity Task Force criteria. RESULTS: Of the 1305 infants, 362 (27.8%) were delivered by CS. On regression analysis, BF% at 2 months did not differ significantly by delivery mode. Infants born by CS had a higher mean BMI at 6 months compared with those born vaginally (adjusted mean difference=0.24; 95% CI 0.06 to 0.41, p value=0.009). At 2 years, no difference was seen across the exposure groups in the risk of being overweight or obese. At 5 years, the association between prelabour CS and the risk of overweight or obesity was not statistically significant (adjusted relative risk ratio, aRRR=1.37; 95% CI 0.69 to 2.69) and the association remained statistically nonsignificant when children who were macrosomic at birth were excluded from the model (aRRR=0.86; 95% CI 0.36 to 2.08). CONCLUSION: At 6 months of age, children born by CS had a significantly higher BMI but this did not persist into future childhood. There was no evidence to support an association between mode of delivery and long-term risk of obesity in the child.

The Most Influential Medical Journals According to Wikipedia: Quantitative Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Wikipedia, the multilingual encyclopedia, was founded in 2001 and is the world's largest and most visited online general reference website. It is widely used by health care professionals and students. The inclusion of journal articles in Wikipedia is of scholarly interest, but the time taken for a journal article to be included in Wikipedia, from the moment of its publication to its incorporation into Wikipedia, is unclear. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to determine the ranking of the most cited journals by their representation in the English-language medical pages of Wikipedia. In addition, we evaluated the number of days between publication of journal articles and their citation in Wikipedia medical pages, treating this measure as a proxy for the information-diffusion rate. METHODS: We retrieved the dates when articles were included in Wikipedia and the date of journal publication from Crossref by using an application programming interface. RESULTS: From 11,325 Wikipedia medical articles, we identified citations to 137,889 journal articles from over 15,000 journals. There was a large spike in the number of journal articles published in or after 2002 that were cited by Wikipedia. The higher the importance of a Wikipedia article, the higher was the mean number of journal citations it contained (top article, 48.13 [SD 33.67]; lowest article, 6.44 [SD 9.33]). However, the importance of the Wikipedia article did not affect the speed of reference addition. The Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews was the most cited journal by Wikipedia, followed by The New England Journal of Medicine and The Lancet. The multidisciplinary journals Nature, Science, and the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences were among the top 10 journals with the highest Wikipedia medical article citations. For the top biomedical journal papers cited in Wikipedia's medical pages in 2016-2017, it took about 90 days (3 months) for the citation to be used in Wikipedia. CONCLUSIONS: We found evidence of "recentism," which refers to preferential citation of recently published journal articles in Wikipedia. Traditional high-impact medical and multidisciplinary journals were extensively cited by Wikipedia, suggesting that Wikipedia medical articles have robust underpinnings. In keeping with the Wikipedia policy of citing reviews/secondary sources in preference to primary sources, the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews was the most referenced journal.

The Impact of Caesarean Section on the Risk of Childhood Overweight and Obesity: New Evidence from a Contemporary Cohort Study.

Caesarean section (CS) rates are increasing globally and exceed 50% in some countries. Childhood obesity has been linked to CS via lack of exposure to vaginal microflora although the literature is inconsistent. We investigated the association between CS birth and the risk of childhood obesity using the nationally representative Growing-Up-in-Ireland (GUI) cohort. The GUI study recruited randomly 11134 infants. The exposure was categorised into normal vaginal birth (VD) [reference], assisted VD, elective (planned) CS and emergency (unplanned) CS. The primary outcome measure was obesity defined according to the International Obesity Taskforce criteria. Statistical analysis included multinomial logistic regression with adjustment for potential confounders. Infants delivered by elective CS had an adjusted relative risk ratio (aRRR) = 1.32; [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-1.74] of being obese at age three years. This association was attenuated when macrosomic children were excluded (aRRR = 0.99; [95% CI 0.67-1.45]). Infants delivered by emergency CS had an increased risk of obesity aRRR = 1.56; [95% CI 1.20-2.03]; this association remained after excluding macrosomic children. We found insufficient evidence to support a causal relationship between elective CS and childhood obesity. An increased risk of obesity in children born by emergency CS, but not elective, suggests that there is no causal effect due to vaginal microflora.

Temporal trends in the epidemiology of cervical cancer in South Africa (1994-2012).

Cervical cancer (CC) is the leading cause of cancer death among female South Africans (SA). Improved access to reproductive health services following multi-ethnic democracy in 1994, HIV epidemic, and the initiation of CC population-based screening in early 2000s have influenced the epidemiology of CC in SA. We therefore evaluated the trends in CC age-standardised incidence (ASIR) (1994-2009) and mortality rates (ASMR) (2004-2012) using data from the South African National Cancer Registry and the Statistics South Africa, respectively. Five-year relative survival rates and average per cent change (AAPC) stratified by ethnicity and age-groups was determined. The average annual CC cases and mortalities were 4,694 (75,099 cases/16 years) and 2,789 (25,101 deaths/9 years), respectively. The ASIR was 22.1/100,000 in 1994 and 23.3/100,000 in 2009, with an average annual decline in incidence of 0.9% per annum (AAPC = -0.9%, p-value < 0.001). The ASMR decreased slightly by 0.6% per annum from 13.9/100,000 in 2004 to 13.1/100,000 in 2012 (AAPC = -0.6%, p-value < 0.001). In 2012, ASMR was 5.8-fold higher in Blacks than in Whites. The 5-year survival rates were higher in Whites and Indians/Asians (60-80%) than in Blacks and Coloureds (40-50%). The incidence rate increased (AAPC range: 1.1-3.1%, p-value < 0.001) among young women (25-34 years) from 2000 to 2009. Despite interventions, there were minimal changes in overall epidemiology of CC in SA but there were increased CC rates among young women and ethnic disparities in CC burden. A review of the CC national policy and directed CC prevention and treatment are required to positively impact the burden of CC in SA.

The Terrorist Attacks and the Human Live Birth Sex Ratio: a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

AIM: The live birth sex ratio is defined as male/total births (M/F). Terrorist attacks have been associated with a transient decline in M/F 3-5 months later with an excess of male losses in ongoing pregnancies. The early 21st century is replete with religious/politically instigated attacks. This study estimated the pooled effect size between exposure to attacks and M/F. Registration number CRD42016041220. METHODS: PubMed and Scopus were searched for ecological studies that evaluated the relationship between terrorist attacks from 1/1/2000 to 16/6/2016 and M/F. An overall pooled odds ratio (OR) for the main outcome was generated using the generic inverse variance method. RESULTS: Five studies were included: 2011 Norway attacks; 2012 Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting; 2001 September 11 attacks; 2004 Madrid and 2005 London bombings. OR at 0.97 95% CI (0.94-1.00) (I2 = 63%) showed a small statistically significant 3% decline in the odds (p = 0.03) of having a male live birth 3-5 months later. For lone wolf attacks there was a 10% reduction, OR 0.90 95% CI (0.86-0.95) (p = 0.0001). CONCLUSION: Terrorist (especially lone wolf) attacks were significantly associated with reduced odds of having a live male birth. Pregnancy loss remains an important Public Health challenge. Systematic reviews and meta-analyses considering other calamities are warranted.

Evolution of Wikipedia's medical content: past, present and future.

As one of the most commonly read online sources of medical information, Wikipedia is an influential public health platform. Its medical content, community, collaborations and challenges have been evolving since its creation in 2001, and engagement by the medical community is vital for ensuring its accuracy and completeness. Both the encyclopaedia's internal metrics as well as external assessments of its quality indicate that its articles are highly variable, but improving. Although content can be edited by anyone, medical articles are primarily written by a core group of medical professionals. Diverse collaborative ventures have enhanced medical article quality and reach, and opportunities for partnerships are more available than ever. Nevertheless, Wikipedia's medical content and community still face significant challenges, and a socioecological model is used to structure specific recommendations. We propose that the medical community should prioritise the accuracy of biomedical information in the world's most consulted encyclopaedia.

Fake news of baby booms 9months after major sporting events distorts the public's understanding of early human development science.

INTRODUCTION: In France on 27/6/16, Iceland's men's national football team won 2-1, knocking England out of the UEFA European Championship. RESULT: Nine months after this momentous Icelandic victory, Ásgeir Pétur Þorvaldsson a medical doctor in Iceland, posted a tweet in jest suggesting that a baby boom had occurred as a result of increased celebratory coital activity following the win. The media covered this widely but statistical analysis shows otherwise and this was confirmed by the original tweet source. DISCUSSION: Given the increase in fake scientific news, it is especially important for scientists to correct misinformation lest the public loses trust in science or gains a distorted understanding of known facts.